Ibrahim Gsibat P.5

War on Labor? Unemployment Rates and U.S Wars

            Historically, the United States is often very busy, militarily speaking. Since its inception, the U.S has been involved in many conflicts. From the very beginning, the colonists that composed what would later be called the "Great Migration" from Britain had to fight for their lives in the untamed wilderness of the New World. Later, those same colonists had to fight in a grueling and bitter revolutionary war for their freedom and right to self-rule. In more modern times, the U.S has been very involved in overseas affairs. At times it seems as if there isn’t a single international armed conflict that the U.S isn’t involved in. These wars are often the subject of intense debate and protest, and during election years they usually take center stage. Republicans and Democrats both have their stances on the assorted conflicts the U.S is involved in, but what the conversation usually revolves around is death toll. The first and foremost factor people consider when discussing war is the casualty rate, the death toll. People are most interested in how many soldiers died, and under what circumstance they died.

But another very important factor that is left largely ignored is the state of the U.S economy during these times. Contrary to the average opinion, war does not always have an adverse effect on the national economy. In fact, I believe that war stimulates the national economy through two main factors: young men are shipped overseas, leaving plenty of job openings to be taken by others; and war purchases also stimulate the manufacturing sector. But how can this linkbe explored? Because the total number of soldiers shipped out is a good indicator of how large scale the war is/was, and because national unemployment rates are a good indicator of the state of the economy, I will be using these two factors to determine whether wars strengthen or hurt the national economy. I will also take into consideration the size of the war itself, and the parties involved. In this study, the five major wars over the past fifty years will be the ones used.

In order of appearance: Gulf War, Iraq War, Vietnam War, Afghanistan War, World War II

In the above graph, the total number of troops deployed during a given war is matched with the national unemployment rate of the 3^rd year of the war (by which time things will have been in full swing). By looking at this graph, no discernible patterns can be spotted. There is a V trend, with a depression in the center and plateaus on the sides. This displays no correlation, as what we were hoping for was an upward trend, with a positive correlation between the number of soldiers deployed, and the unemployment rate.

But all hope is not yet lost. By taking into account only the most recent wars (Iraq, Afghanistan), we might be able to glean a pattern from this yet. Here is the revised graph:

With this graph, a trend is definitely present. There is a positive correlation between the number of soldiers deployed and the unemployment rate at the time. This graph is telling us that the more soldiers shipped overseas, the greater the unemployment rate. So, in essence, war has an adverse effect on the national economy, or in other words, it hurts us. This could be due to a number of factors, but I think it has something to do with speculation and the stock market. The general public and stockholders begin to feel jittery about the instability brought about during wartime, and so they leave the stock market or invest in safer commodities, such as gold. This pessimistic attitude hurts the economy, thus having a negative effect on unemployment rates. That is a whole other essay, the main point is, my original hypothesis has been disproven (so far).

But if there's one thing I've learned in my math class this year, it is to arrive at a satisfactory and acceptable conclusion, one must have the mathematical evidence to back it up.

So the next task will be to find the standard deviation:

(7.3+5.4+5+6.2+6.6)/5 = 6.1 ßthe mean

7.3-6.1=1.2^2= 1.44

5.4-6.1=-.7^2 = .49

5-6.1= -1.1^2= 1.21

6.2-6.1=.1^2= .01

6.6-6.1=.5^2= .25

1.44+.49+1.21+.01+.25= 3.4

3.4/4=.85 ßthe variance

Sqrt of .85= .921 ßthe standard deviation

Now we know that the standard deviation of the Unemployment rates in all of the major wars the U.S has been involved in is .921. This value is fairly low, so it tells us that the data points tend to be very close to the mean, which assures their usability.

Another use for the standard deviation is calculating the margin of error: .921(2) = 1.842

I have found that my initial hypothesis was wrong, and that war does not have a positive effect on the national economy. Instead, I have (tentatively) found that war has an adverse effect on the national economy, my benchmark being that it increased unemployment during the wartime years. Of course, there are limitations to a study as large scale and ambitious as this. The economy of any nation is extremely hard to measure, but the U.S possesses one of the most complex in the world. Entire careers are built around trying to measure and predict the economy, such as hedge fund managers and investment analysts. Admittedly, my data is very broad and not very concise. Not to mention the fact that these wars span over 50 years, and the economy changed massively during that time, so using one standard method of measure without making conditional adjustments isn't going to provide exact results, albeit doing so would have required the writing of a book, not an essay. If I were to do my project differently, I would assemble a crack team of elite researchers and mathematicians, from universities such as MIT and Stanford, and have them assist me in accurately and precisely determining the effect wars have on the economy. I'd also need a few economists, and I'd have to pry the legendary Gillian Oberbeck from NASA to assist. With adequate time and funding, we could come out with a definitive answer.

Vladimir Lenin: An Exemplary Precedent for Modern Leaders to Emulate

            In March 1917, at a time of war and chaos an obscure revolutionary and a small band of followers boarded a German train in Zurich, Switzerland. Within 8 months of his arrival in Russia, that leader had propelled himself to absolute power over 150 million people, in a country that occupied one-sixth of the surface of the Earth; no other conqueror in history had ever achieved such a feat. His name was Vladimir Lenin. But the speed of his ascendancy to power is not what separates him from other leaders. How did an obscure intellectual reach the status of a demigod, worshipped as a hero by millions in his mother country Russia, and disciples of communism around the world? Well, not without great difficulty. Every dictator’s road to power is riddled with obstacles and problems. What distinguishes Lenin is his stubborn doggedness, and his cunning and persistence in dealing with and removing the obstacles in his path. With these traits along with his unique approach, Lenin was extremely successful in solving the problems he faced.

Following the successful October Revolution, Lenin found himself as the leader of a war-ravaged country, with widespread famine and unemployment. Firstly, Lenin had to end Russian involvement in the Great War. Lenin signed the treaty of Brest-Litovsk, and although its terms were harsh, the contract was void after Germany was lost to allied forces. It is possible that Lenin spied the cracks in the Nazi regime’s strategies and foresaw the demise of Germany, which made him eager to sign any treaty the Germans had on the table, knowing that the terms wouldn’t last for long in any case. This strategy of appeasement allowed him to protect his Russia from the eastern front, and give him time to build up the nation from within.

Now, Lenin had to make sure that he stamped out all resistance against him and his new government. A primary faction of resistance was the “White Army”, which was comprised by soldiers on the Eastern front who were still loyal to the Tsar and his government, and they also wished to continue fighting in the Great War. The civil war of 1918 begins, in which the opposing White Army is pitted against Lenin’s Red Army. The Red Army, led by Trotsky, emerges victorious. Lenin succeeds in wiping out the seeds of dissent by November of 1920.

But, as in the case of World War I, an end to the fighting did not immediately bring with it a solution to the social and economic devastation brought about by the conflict. Lenin now had to deal with the troubles of the masses. Due to its failure to alleviate the poverty and distress brought about by the two conflicts, the Communist policy implemented by Lenin during the Civil War created social unrest and widespread riots. Faced with the possibility of another revolution and the loss of his power and everything he worked for, Lenin acted quickly, but not rashly. Contrary to other leaders who were on the verge of demise, Lenin kept himself from being induced into a frantic scramble to retain his seat of power. Lenin responded by introducing the “New Economic Policy”. It allowed farmers to sell their produce on the open market and keep the profit, and employ people to work for them.  Also, factories with less than twenty workers were denationalized and returned to former owners. In one swift move, Lenin’s carefully thought out reform policies satisfied the public’s need of jobs and food, and at the same time alleviated some of the pain of the (formerly) wealthy aristocracy at having their factories and fortunes taken over by the government.

After being shot in an assassination attempt by Dora Kaplan, Lenin’s health began to deteriorate. Instead of trying to run the nation from his sickbed, Lenin appointed Joseph Stalin in the newly created position of Secretary General. As Lenin’s health deteriorated further, Stalin suddenly became very important. While Lenin was immobilized after a surgery to remove a bullet from the aforementioned assassination attempt, Stalin made full use of his powers as Secretary General. Stalin played a crucial role in retaining control of the Communist party, and all of Russia. Note that this strategy of appointing a close loyal supporter to retain control was imitated by other dictators, most notably Fidel Castro.

Lenin was a revolutionary who held a greater vision for his country, in which it picks itself up from the despair of the war and once again becomes one of the world’s greatest nations. Despite being exiled twice and facing much harassment and opposition throughout his life, he never gave up on his beliefs and hopes for his country.. He successfully solved the problems he faced in creative yet efficient ways. 

With the current financial crisis and economic downturn, modern leaders have extremely trying times ahead of them, and they must successfully solve these problems if they are to have any hope for reelection. Lenin serves as an excellent example for modern world leaders to emulate. What lessons can be gleaned from Lenin's life? I am not advocating communism, but I urge world leaders to think critically, seek counsel from those who posses knowledge of the situation, and remember that the obvious solution may not be the optimal one (you don't solve a financial crisis by cutting taxes on the wealthy!). Only with determination and sensible leadership will we be able to overcome the hardship we currently face.

                                                                                                                                   

Television:  A Negative Influence

 Television, one of the marvels of the technological age, is used by companies and agencies to reach and deliver a message to a mass amount of people simultaneously. This outreach of companies to consumers is known as advertising. This method of product display is beneficial for companies in the basis that it increases sales and company recognition ,but for the average consumer, advertising has more negative implications than positive. Companies go to all costs to increase revenue, even if it means false advertising or double entendre meanings. The values proposed by these companies in their selfish aims disregard the fact that many watching their ads are children and youth, a demographic that is easily influenced by the things they see around them. Television ads advocate negative values, and virtually hypnotize the viewer to buy into their ideas and values.

Advertisers try to convince the audience that the solution to a problem or the fulfillment of a desire can only be achieved through the purchase of their product a strategy designed towards blind acceptance by the viewer. In this way TV negatively affects the human mind, by limiting the possibilities of conscious choice, teaching our children from an early age that spending and living above your means is justified when you obtain the item of your desire. TV advertisements also promote negative and bad behaviors to the viewers. An example that springs to mind are the commercials used by the manufacturers of Skittles candy, depicting a child in a store who throws a tantrum and ends up getting the candy. This advertisement not only promotes eating unhealthy foods, but also demonstrates to children that it is acceptable to throw a fit in order to get what you want. Another example is the advertisement from Abercrombie and Fitch Co. that depicts a scantily clad young woman engaging in intimate contact with a similarly aged young man. This commercial inculcates to our young women that it is fashionable to dress inappropriately, and dressing in such a fashion attracts attention from the opposite gender, and engaging in intimacies with young men you are unfamiliar with is the “cool” thing to do. Unfortunately, there are no moral or meritorious barriers preventing these companies from spreading their propaganda. We, the American people need to stand up and deny these malicious, profit hungry corporations access to the delicate hearts and minds of our cherished children and youth.  

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IB Musical Investigation: Baroque Music vs. Indian Classical Music

Ibrahim Gsibat

           

The Baroque period in European music lasted from about 1600 to about 1750. It was preceded by the Renaissance and followed by the Classical period. It was during the Baroque that the major/minor tonal system that still dominates Western Music was established. This period is best known for the complex counterpoint of the mature Baroque, as typified by the work of Johann Sebastian Bach and George Frideric Handel.

Many Western listeners find themselves drawn to the classical music of India but aren't sure how to listen to it. The two traditions developed independently for thousands of years, and the music of one tradition can seem mystifying to someone raised in the other tradition. Baroque and Indian classical music are two distinct traditions, but they share many similarities.

            The Baroque is the earliest period in European music whose music is still widely heard. This is probably because music before this period has an exotic, unfamiliar sound to most modern Western listeners. The music of the middle ages was modal rather than tonal; in other words, it was not based on chords and harmonies in major and minor keys. Most people strongly prefer the musical tradition that they grew up hearing; it “makes sense” to them in a way that unfamiliar traditions do not. In a fundamental way, the Baroque marked the beginning of our familiar tradition. One of the most obvious differences – a difference that you can hear even if you don’t realize it or can’t explain it – in medieval music is the lack of thirds, the interval that modern (triadic) chords are built from. Medieval music was based instead on the intervals of the perfect fifth and perfect fourth. This gives early music an open, hollow texture and harmonies that are unfamiliar to the modern ear. It was during the Renaissance that thirds began to be used more often. The sound most closely associated with the Baroque kept the independent voices, but with some important differences. The most important change, as mentioned above, was the development during this era of tonal harmony. The composers of the mature Baroque were not only using major and minor chords, but were using them in the kinds of chord progressions and with the kinds of cadences that have continued to be used throughout the following centuries to our own times. This is not to say that there were no later changes to the system of harmony developed during the Baroque; the Romantic and early modern eras in particular saw a great deal of experimentation with harmony. The experimentation of the Romantic period expanded the harmonic possibilities inherent within the tonal system; its sound has also strongly influenced subsequent developments, including in popular music. Another development of the Baroque period is the rise of the bass line. The voices, or lines, of Renaissance music, and of some Baroque counterpoint, were typically equal in importance. But in much of Baroque music, the various parts were rapidly losing their equality. Instead, the highest line (what we hear as the melody), and the lowest line (the bass) became the most important parts, with the middle lines simply filling in the harmony. In fact, harpsichord players were often expected to improvise an accompaniment given only the bass line with some extra notations. This melody-and-bass-dominated texture, with the bass outlining or strongly implying the harmony, still predominates in most Western music genres and styles. As mentioned above, there was a great variety of musical forms popular with Baroque composers. Some of these, such as the highly contrapuntal fugues and inventions, are closely associated with this period. Others, including fantasies, variations, suites, sonatas, and concertos, proved more influential, with many major composers using, developing and experimenting with these forms throughout later eras.

            The melodies and harmonies in Western music are based on major and minor scales. Major-key melodies and harmonies are different from minor-key melodies and harmonies, but the same melody and chord progression can be easily transposed from one major key to a different major key, or from one minor key to a different minor key. Of course, some Western music is modal, and some uses pentatonic, blues, twelve-tone, or other scales, but the vast majority of familiar pieces can be classified as major or minor. The melodies of Indian music are based on ragas (in southern India, ragam). Like a scale, the raga is a list of the notes that are used in a particular piece of music. But there are many more ragas than there are scales - hundreds - and the various ragas are much more different from each other than the various scales are. The number of notes used, the intervals between the notes, and even the tuning, can be different from one raga to the next. Because of these differences, the rules for constructing melodies are also different in different ragas, and so the melodies found in various ragas will not be the same. A melody cannot be transposed from one raga to another; they are simply too different. You may have noticed that major-key music tends to have different moods than minor-key music. (See Major Keys and Scales for more about this.) Ragas are also associated with particular moods. The idea that different modes produce different moods is one that was also common in ancient and medieval Europe. Many ragas are also associated with a specific season and/or time of day. These associations often began with traditions of playing certain ragas for particular festivals or religious rites, but the associations with moods are also tied into the associations with particular times. (Think of the difference between your typical mood on a summer evening as opposed to an autumn morning.) It is often considered inappropriate to play a raga at the wrong time (similar to a Westerner's reaction at hearing Christmas music in July, lullabies at breakfast, or sad songs at a wedding), and creating the raga's proper mood is one of the Indian musician's most important tasks.

Much of the interest in Western music lies in its complex, ever-changing harmony. Indian music takes a different approach. Melodic scales and rhythms are much, much more various and complex than they are in Western music. Harmony, on the other hand, is usually kept simple, in the form of an unchanging drone of a pure perfect fifth or perfect fourth. In order to fit better with the pure interval of the drone, the tuning system used is not equal temperament; instead a just intonation system, based on the pure fifth, is used. The tuning of the other notes can vary to suit the particular raga. Western music tends to use only a few popular meters for almost all of its music, and these meters are usually felt as repetitions of two, three, or four beats. The rhythms of Indian music, however, rather than being organized into short measures, are organized in long rhythmic cycles called talas). There are more than 100 different talas. These rhythmic cycles are quite long and complex. In fact, it is common for some sections of a performance to be in free rhythm, with the tala not even introduced until the middle of the piece. These free-rhythm performances, which altogether lack a beat-like pulse, are central to a true appreciation of Indian music.

The texture of Indian music is typically a single melody voice or instrument, supported by rhythm percussion. As mentioned above, this texture is not common in Western music, and there are several elements of the timbre (color) of the music that also make it sound unfamiliar. One is, of course, the use of Non-western instruments, as described below. But even the tone quality of the voice is different from the typical Western vocalist, who usually strongly relies on vibrato to produce an acceptable tone quality. The Indian vocalist, on the other hand, tends to use a timbre lacking in vibrato. To Western listeners, this tone quality may at first sound flat, nasal, or lifeless. However, to the Indian listener it is a clean, clear sound that does not mask the subtleties of the ragas tuning, or overpower or interfere with the production of the intricate ornaments that are also an integral part of each raga. Because instrumental techniques also rely on these subtle tunings and ornaments, Indian instruments also tend to play with little or no vibrato. The harmony is usually provided by a drone instrument called the tanpura. This instrument has four very long strings. The strings are plucked one after the other, continuously throughout the music. It takes about 5 seconds for one four-string cycle to be plucked, and although the drone itself is constant, the complex interactions between the harmonics of the strings vary during the cycle, creating a shimmering, buzzing effect unlike that of any Western instrument. In India, vocal soloists are very popular, but Westerners tend to hear instrumental soloists. The melody instrument is often also a stringed instrument: the most well-known is probably the sitar, a plucked-lute-family chordophone that has moveable frets to accomodate changes in tuning from one raga to the next. Other popular solo strings include the surbahar, which is basically a bass sitar, the sarod, a fretless plucked-lute-family instrument, and the vina, a zither-family chordophone with gourd resonators. On many of these instruments, only some of the strings are for playing the melody. Other strings are drone/rhythm strings and/or strings that are not plucked but only vibrate sympathetically with the other strings. Again, this can produce a buzzing timbre that Westerners find exotic. There are other, less common solo string instruments. Bamboo flutes are also popular solo instruments, and some Western instruments, particularly violin, are also fairly popular. The rhythmic accompaniment is usually provided by the tabla, a set of two small drums that are played with the hand. The tabla is tuned to the raga by tapping wedges on the side of the instrument. Because the tabla is played with the hand rather than a stick or beater, the rhythms of the accomplished player are subtle and expressive as well as complex. In fact, even on this percussion instrument, an accomplished Indian musician can put the listener in mind of vocal phrasing.

Inflation: Causes and Effects

Throughout the history of the United States, there have been numerous financial and economic periods of turbulence. These periods are generally followed by a correction in the markets, and even a period of positive growth. But unfortunately time and time again, the U.S market finds itself returning to periods of economic downturn. The catalysts at the root of these downturns remain a hotly debated issue, but inflation is undoubtedly one of the biggest factors. What is inflation? Inflation is the measure of price increases within a set of goods and services over a period of time. The most common gauge of inflation is known as the CPI, or consumer price index, which is a measure of price increases (or decreases) of basic consumer goods and services. The GDP deflator, another very important measure of inflation, measures the price changes in goods that are produced domestically. In effect, inflation decreases the value of your money and makes it more expensive to buy goods and services.

                There are a few different reasons that can account for the inflation in our goods and services; let us discuss a few of them. Demand-pull inflation refers to the idea that the economy actually demands more goods and services than available. This shortage of supply enables sellers to raise prices until equilibrium is established between supply and demand. The cost-push theory , also known as "supply shock inflation", suggests that shortages or shocks to the available supply of a certain good or product will cause a ripple effect through the economy by raising prices through the supply chain from the producer to the consumer. You can readily see this in oil markets. When OPEC reduces oil supply, prices are artificially driven up and result in higher prices at the pump. Money supply plays a large role in inflationary pressure as well. Monetarist economists believe that if the Federal  Reserve does not control the money supply adequately, it may actually grow at a rate faster than that of the potential output in the economy, or real GDP. The belief is that this will drive up prices and hence, inflation. Low interest rates correspond with high levels of money supply and allow for more investment in big business and new ideas which eventually leads to unsustainable levels of inflation as cheap money is available. The credit crisis of 2007 is a very good example of this at work. 

Inflation can artificially be created through a circular increase in wage earners demands and then the subsequent increase in producer costs which will drive up the prices of their goods and services. This will then translate back into higher prices for the wage earners or consumers. As demands go higher from each side, inflation will continue to rise.The effects of inflation can be brutal for those who are looking to retire on a fixed income. The dollars that they expect to retire with will be worth less and less as time goes on. When the balance between supply and demand spirals out of control, buyers will change their spending habits as they meet their purchasing thresholds and producers will suffer and be forced to cut output. This can be readily tied to higher unemployment rates. When extremes arise in the supply/demand structure, imbalances are created. The mortgage crisis of 2007 is a great example of this. Home prices were increasing at a very rapid rate from 2002 to 2005, and got to the point where the prices became too high, forcing buyers to step aside. This lack of demand forced sellers to drop prices back to a point where there is demand. As I write this article, equilibrium has still not come into the real estate market. This is due to many factors, but the extreme acceleration of inflation in home prices is directly correlated to the pullback we are experiencing. A similar example can be seen in the internet euphoria in the stock market back in 1998 to 2000. This rapid acceleration in stock prices eventually became unsustainable and led to a disastrous fall. After all, "the bigger they are, the harder they fall".

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